It Would Be Good For Kentucky and America Regardless of the Outcome of the 2026 Senate or 2028 Presidential Elections
by Bryan H. Wildenthal (September 4, 2025)
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I don’t think any well-informed observer of American politics doesn’t assume Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear plans to run for the Democratic Party 2028 presidential nomination. You can get a good sense why he’d be a very strong candidate by watching his 30-minute interview in March 2025 with Jon Favreau on Pod Save America.
At this point, Beshear and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg are my two co-favorites as potential contenders for the nomination.
But neither Beshear nor any other major candidate is likely to formally declare in the presidential race until early or mid-2027, almost two years in the future.
What should Beshear do in the meantime?
The answer to that question, in my view, is closely tied to the fact that the 2026 midterm elections will play an absolutely critical role in whether the Democratic Party even has a decent chance to save the country from the potentially final triumph of Trumpian fascism in 2028.
If Democrats fail to retake both Houses of Congress in 2026, the additional damage to our nation’s institutions will be immense. And the ability of Trump’s servile Republican minions to rig the 2028 elections and engage in malicious mischief over a possibly close presidential outcome will be hugely magnified.
Most informed observers think Democratic recapture of the U.S. House of Representatives is much more likely in 2026 than Democrats regaining a Senate majority. I share that conventional wisdom. Winning back even narrow Senate control in 2026 will be a very steep climb.
Unfortunately, of the two Houses of Congress, it is the Senate which is the most critically essential for Democrats to win back as soon as possible. Those who think we can get by with only winning the House in 2026 are sadly mistaken.
It actually won’t matter much to Trump or Republicans if they lose the House and are unable to advance any legislation through Congress for the last two years of the current term. Affirmatively passing legislation has never been their highest goal, especially now that they’ve checked off — in the Big Ugly Bill — the usual Republican priorities of huge tax cuts for the rich together with slashing Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act (threatening health care for most Americans and endangering rural hospitals nationwide).
In signing the Big Ugly Bill on July 4, 2025, Trump broke his explicit 2024 campaign promises not to cut Medicaid and he exploded the projected federal debt to staggeringly unprecedented levels.
But what else is new? It really amazes me how some people outside the delusional MAGA base (even some Democrats I know) still credit Republicans with a totally unearned reputation for better economic and financial management.
Let’s please not erase into a memory hole that the only president in the last half century to balance the federal budget was a Democrat: Bill Clinton! And no, don’t try to feed us any bullshit suggesting the Republican-controlled Congress, post-1994, deserves any equivalent credit. Republicans in Congress furiously opposed President Clinton’s wise, modest, and courageous tax bill requiring wealthier Americans to pay their fair share, which helped give us the historically booming economy of the 1990s and made it possible to balance the budget.
Republican presidents ever since Ronald Reagan and the overwhelming majority of Republicans in Congress — despite hypocritical bleats of faux concern about the federal debt — have for 40-plus years now favored huge tax giveaways to the wealthy, massive increases in deficit spending, and explosive growth in the federal debt. Watch what they do, not what they say.
No one can claim they weren’t warned about Trump. I was merely one more voice among many when I pointed out (in an essay published July 15, 2024, following a list of even more frightening threats to the nation’s future):
“Oh … and by the way … if you’re deluding yourself that Trump might at least be kinda sorta okay on the economy — think again!”
Trump’s insanely reckless (and probably illegal) tariff policies, his blatant lies to the American people about how tariffs even work, his efforts to destroy the independence of the Federal Reserve Board, and his hyperpartisan “shoot the messenger” approach of firing civil servants who dare to report inconveniently bad economic data — thus undermining the ability of anyone to have any confidence in crucial government statistics and the basic stability of our financial system — well … if all that doesn’t make hardheaded business types turn against Trump, I think we all know exactly how seriously (not) to take any of them in the future when they whine and hyperventilate about progressive Democrats supposedly being “bad for the economy.”
But I digress. Sorry.
The real Republican priority is just to continue gutting the federal government. They don’t need a majority in the House to do that. Trump’s veto, and his power over the executive branch (with an apparently compliant Supreme Court), and the obstructive power of even a Republican minority in Congress, are more than enough.
Republicans generally, and Trump specifically, are quite content to be a purely destructive force when it comes to the government and public policy. They have no real interest in reforming or improving the government and its services to the public. They’d rather it just get out of the way — unless they can pervert it into an instrument of partisan authoritarian power.
But with a continued Republican Senate majority after 2026, things would be even worse than that.
Trump would have essentially unfettered power to continue gaining Senate confirmation of incompetent far-right extremist nominees. He could continue placing unqualified kooks into key executive branch positions.
He could continue packing the federal courts with partisan rightwing judges. Even more dangerously, in the event of a Supreme Court vacancy, he could stack our highest court with more subservient rightwing enablers.
In short, if Beshear and others (I don’t mean to put this all on him) don’t run for and win every conceivable Senate race where Democrats have any chance at all, the 2028 presidential race may become cruelly irrelevant.
In our despair over the wrecking ball that Trump and his minions are now taking to our country, let us please not forget: Elections really do matter. Every vote matters.
Trump, despite his desire to do so, does not (yet) exercise control over our highly decentralized system of election administration. We still have an excellent chance to vote his supporters in Congress out of power in 2026, and thus lay the groundwork for a successful campaign to restore good governance at the presidential level in 2028.
But it is not clear how many more elections we can count on in which we will continue having such opportunities, if Trump and his minions are given more time and opportunities to undermine our democracy.
American voters did not give Trump any landslide victory in 2024, as he falsely and absurdly claims. He has no mandate at all to do 90% of the crazy shit he’s doing. Americans, especially the decisive swing voters who inexplicably gambled on again trusting Trump with our future, did not vote for the vast majority of this.
Trump did not even win a majority! He won by an agonizingly narrow plurality of 1.5% (49.8 to 48.3). We can puzzle all we want over why January 6 was not a sufficiently clear lesson in advance for those decisive voters, but there is ample evidence in any event that many have soured on him since the election.
The servile “Republican” politicians now enabling Trump’s worst egotistical and authoritarian impulses (they hardly deserve their time-honored and now farcically inaccurate party label) were restored to similarly narrow control of Congress — just 50.6% of House seats and what would have been a mere 51–49 margin in the Senate were it not for the tragically narrow defeat of two incumbent Democratic senators in Pennsylvania and Ohio (fueled by vast spending of dark crypto money).
The ultimate 53-47 Republican Senate majority we now confront happened only because they prevailed in Pennsylvania and Ohio by margins of just 0.2% and 3.6%, respectively, with the Republican candidates winning only 48.8% and 50.1%.
In any event, our task now is to overcome that majority in 2026.
I don’t think any serious observer disputes that Beshear is the only Democratic candidate with any hope of winning the Senate seat in deep-red Kentucky opened up by the retirement of incumbent Senator Mitch McConnell, the former Senate Republican Leader.
In 2019 Beshear won a stunning razor-thin upset in the governor’s race, prevailing by just 0.4% (49.2 to 48.8). He then turned out to be such an effective and popular governor that Kentuckians reelected him in 2023 by more than a 5-point margin (about 53 to 47%).
Democrats have an exceedingly narrow and treacherous path to regain a Senate majority in 2026. They must first defend a vulnerable incumbent seeking reelection in Georgia, Senator Jon Ossoff. They must also hold three vulnerable open seats currently held by Democrats in Minnesota, Michigan, and New Hampshire.
They must do all that and then flip three Republican seats simply to get to 50, which would still not be enough because Vice President J.D. Vance could continue casting tie-breaking votes to ensure Republican control.
Even winning those three seats will be an uphill climb, though I think there is a fair chance Democrats can hold all their current seats and win three more. The best opportunities will be:
(1) Maine, where incumbent Senator Susan Collins represents a state that rejected Trump by a 7-point margin in 2024;
(2) North Carolina, which went only narrowly for Trump in 2024 and has an open-seat race in which popular former Governor Roy Cooper is now a declared Democratic candidate and the presumptive nominee; and
(3) Ohio, in which former Senator Sherrod Brown was only narrowly defeated in 2024 (as noted above) and is now staging a comeback run against the appointed replacement for Vance, who was elected to the Senate from Ohio in 2022 by an unimpressive 6-point margin (less than the 8-point margin by which Trump carried Ohio in 2020, a much more difficult year for Republicans).
After that the going gets far more difficult.
Iowa, despite voting three times for Trump, may be a possibility. There’s an open-seat race in Iowa and a recent special election and polling data suggest Republicans are vulnerable. Texas will be even more uphill. Alaska would be a long-shot chance, but only if former U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola runs for the Senate instead of governor.
Kentucky may well be the Democrats’ best shot to get to 51 seats, but only if Beshear runs.
Concededly, even for Beshear, it would be a very challenging uphill race. There is a long political history of even popular governors from a state’s underdog party being unable to translate that to a successful run for the U.S. Senate, where ideological divisions between the national parties tend to be more salient and influential. A governor can, to a large extent, focus on issues that don’t trigger national partisan political divisions. A key role of senators is to cast their votes to support the national party to which they belong.
Sadly, all indications so far seem to be that Beshear will make the cautious and risk-averse choice to bypass the Senate race and just focus on 2028. Doubtless he and his advisors worry about the expense and distraction of a Senate run and fear that a loss would derail his presidential ambitions.
That is gravely mistaken, both for the country and for his own ambitions.
Here’s why, Governor. Let me address you directly on this.
Main Point I: A Senate Race Is the Best Way to Serve the People You Care About and Stay Relevant and in the Public Eye Between Now and 2027
Subpoint I.a: It’s the Patriotic Thing To Do
The stakes are simply too high for the nation as a whole, not just the Democratic Party, to sit this one out. You are the only candidate who can possibly win this race in Kentucky. And you can win it!
You may argue you need to focus on being governor for the rest of your term through the end of 2027. But as you yourself noted in that March 2025 Pod Save America interview, your people are hurting now.
And there’s very little as governor you can do to stop it, and nothing you could do for more than one long year (December 2027 to January 2029) after your term runs out, before any new Democratic president can replace the Trump-Vance crazy train on January 20, 2029.
But as a senator, starting in January 2027, if you help forge a Democratic Senate majority (and your run could make the difference!), you would have two full years, before you or any new president can take office, to do a LOT to stop the hurt and protect your people in Kentucky along with all Americans.
You could help block a LOT of additional damage Trump would otherwise inflict during those two years. And a Senate seat would give you the national platform and profile to lead that fight.
Subpoint I.b: How to Answer the Inevitable Taunts
Your opponent, whoever that may be, will of course try to bait you over whether you’ll run for president and whether you’re just using the Senate race as a “stepping stone.”
But there are very easy and compelling answers to those taunts and questions. For heaven’s sake, don’t disingenuously disclaim interest or promise not to run for the White House. Just make it clear you’re running for Senate now to help people now and you’ll cross future bridges when the time comes.
Here’s just one example of what you could say (you shouldn’t need my help with this):
“I’ve been 100% clear and candid all along. I’m running for Senate now because people are hurting and I want to be part of the solution at the national level now. We don’t have a moment to waste! I’m not ruling out any future campaign but that’s a long way away. Our people need help now!”
Main Point II: Even in the Worst-Case Scenario (a Senate Loss), You’ll Generate Positive Impacts and Be Better Positioned for 2028 by Trying in 2026
Subpoint II.a: You’ll Get a Lot of Respect and Credit For Trying
Everyone knows a Senate race in deep-red Kentucky will be a brutally difficult challenge, even for a successful and popular governor like yourself. But it’s worth the risk! The stakes are just too high! See Point I.a.
Voters will admire you for making the courageous choice to do whatever you can because it’s the right thing to do.
Subpoint II.b: No One Will Blame You For Losing in a Deep-Red State
Your fellow Democrats nationally, and indeed most independent voters or of any party, will respect and appreciate you for fighting the good fight — a lot more than if you just pass on it because it’s too difficult.
Everyone knows Kentucky went 63% for Trump in 2016, 62% in 2020, and 64% in 2024. You have the chance to be a true “Giant-Slayer” here!
Subpoint II.c: You’ll Surely Do Much Better Than Any Other Democrat Has Done in Kentucky, Creating Solid Evidence of Your Superior Electability in 2028
I think you can win this Senate race outright. But there’s no doubt, at the very least, that you’ll make it FAR closer than any of the last three presidential contests in Kentucky.
Pundits and party leaders and activists who will have a lot of influence in the early stages of the 2028 presidential primary race will pay a lot of attention to how much you narrow the gap in Kentucky compared to the last three presidential elections.
They will extrapolate from that to how you would likely perform in much closer swing states, especially crucial Southern states like Georgia and North Carolina, where even a few percentage points of over-performance compared to other Democrats would ensure likely victory.
This will create solid evidence, in a national race more comparable to the presidential contest, for why you would likely be the strongest Democratic presidential nominee in 2028.
Subpoint II.d: Even If You Don’t Prevail, a Senate Run Will Change the Narrative, Energize Democrats, and Force Republicans to Spend a Lot of Resources to Stop You
If you run for the Senate in Kentucky, it will energize and give hope to Democrats (and others who oppose Trump) across the country. They’ll fight that much harder in other states, knowing the prize of a Democratic Senate majority is that much closer and more attainable.
Republicans know they cannot afford a loss in Kentucky, so it will force them to desperately divert a lot of time and effort to win (if they even can) what would otherwise be a pro forma pushover for them.
This could alter the entire national narrative of the 2026 midterm elections, before most voters start paying close attention to the 2028 presidential race.
And you will get a lot of credit as the cause!
Main Point III: The Upsides Are HUGE as a Senate Win Would Dramatically Boost and Might Actually Clinch Your Chances in the Presidential Race
Subpoint III.a: You Would Be a THREE-Time Upset Victor and Giant-Slayer
If you prevail in the Senate race, that would be the THIRD race in a row, after your two improbable victories as governor, in which you vastly exceed expectations in a deep-red state. And Kentucky would still be in good hands with your Democratic Lieutenant Governor Jacqueline Coleman.
To take the seat of the longtime Republican Senate Leader, in a state where the most powerful Republican president in modern times trounced his Democratic opponents three times in a row, would especially confer on you the status of “Giant-Slayer.”
Subpoint III.b: The Upset Victory and Senate Platform Would Give You Priceless Stature and Free Visibility
Going back to the downsides, one must again concede that a Senate run (even if successful) would be expensive and a distraction from your duties as governor as well as your likely continuing plans for 2028. Of course, preparing for 2028 is already going to be a huge distraction.
But the countervailing benefits exceed the costs. You have to make a realistic comparison.
If you choose NOT to run for the Senate, that also comes with risks and costs. You would continue toiling away as a relatively obscure governor of a middling-size state, one who quietly chose the easier and more timid path, apparently in the hope of breaking out of obscurity in 2027–28, much like Jimmy Carter did in 1975–76 or Bill Clinton in 1991–92.
The Carter and Clinton models are viable ones to follow. Many have noted the obvious parallels between them and your own position now. But those were very crowded and competitive races, as the 2027–28 cycle will also be. You will struggle to get national attention, as they did.
Passing on the Senate race would be an understandable decision. But you would certainly not be a profile in courage — and perhaps would never gain much of a national profile of any kind. Carter and Clinton both got very lucky in the end. Would you?
Even without a Senate victory (see point II), a race would generate great excitement and a lot more visibility and well-deserved respect for you.
With a Senate victory, you would instantly be FAR better positioned that you would be as a governor quietly coming to the end of eight years in office.
There are risks and costs in a Senate run, but the upside potential vastly exceeds them.
Subpoint III.c: The Stature You Would Earn Would Enable You To Postpone a Formal Presidential Announcement Much Longer Than Other Candidates
Without the stature of a Senate victory — which can only happen if you have the courage to make the run — you will be scrabbling around in 2027 with half a dozen or more similarly little-known candidates for president. You would have to declare very early in order not to miss the train.
With a Senate victory — which can only happen if you have the courage to make the run — you would be in the driver’s seat. Everyone will be begging you to run.
You would have the luxury of postponing a formal declaration until much later in 2027. That would enable you to stay aloof from the possibly messy early stages of the primary cycle.
Governor, I sincerely believe that all these points, taken in combination, point to a clear conclusion: Run for the Senate. And then in due course, if you are ready (as I think you will be), run for president. Save your country.
Whichever Democratic president we must hope succeeds the Trump-Vance crazy train in 2029, that leader will need to be a bold risk-taker willing to think outside the box.
The times will demand nothing less. The profound damage already inflicted by the malicious buffoons now in our national cockpit demands nothing less.
Will Andy Beshear be that president?
My own decision about whom to support for president in 2028 will largely depend on whether he seizes the chance to help us regain the Senate in 2026. If he does, then I likely will support him (win or lose the Kentucky Senate race).
If not, I would have to doubt he has what it takes to be president.
I will close by recalling some words I wrote in another essay last year (published August 10, 2024, devoted mainly to praising President Biden, probably too generously in hindsight, for abandoning his own delusional run for reelection) (adding some emphases here):
“Let me be clear. I would never claim the Democratic Party (which happens to be my own party) is right on every issue. I myself disagree with my party on many ordinary political and policy issues and I fully concede there are reasonable grounds to disagree on many others (though I think it has the better argument on most).”
“[But] the Democratic Party, for all its flaws, mistakes, and biases, is now the only major party still defending basic American values of democracy, decency, truth, honesty, and the rule of law.”
“I don’t say that to boast and I honestly take no partisan satisfaction (certainly no joy) in noting this obvious fact. It is actually terrifying to think about.”
“It is terrifying because it acknowledges a disturbing reality: that the other major party in our political system has gone off the rails and poses a clear and present danger to our country and the future of our people.”
“No patriotic American would want that to be true.”
“I do not want it to be true. I hate to publish it or say it out loud.”
“Like many Americans, I’m deeply tempted to delude myself that somehow it is not true.”
“But tragically — and terrifyingly — it IS true.“
All that has happened since President Trump returned to power on January 20, 2025, confirms what I said in that essay. As I also wrote: “The truth is that both Trump and Vance are profoundly dangerous threats to American democracy and our constitutional form of government.”
If you dispute that, my friends and fellow citizens, you are deluding yourselves — or you’re simply not paying attention. WAKE UP!
If all this does not sufficiently underscore the stakes involved for Andy Beshear — and all the other Democratic patriots now contemplating whether, where, and when to run for office in 2026 or 2028 or both — then I am truly afraid for our country’s future.
Please, Governor Beshear — and all your colleagues in the leadership of the Democratic Party — take a deep breath and make the right decisions for our country’s future.
The Skeptical Professor 